Welcome to our weekly NHL betting trends analysis. We break down the most profitable patterns, identify teams to back and fade, and highlight value opportunities for the week ahead.

Top Trends to Watch This Week

1. Home Underdogs Continue to Deliver Value

Through early January, home underdogs in the NHL are covering at a 54.2% clip—significantly above the break-even rate of 52.4%. This trend is especially strong in divisional matchups where home ice advantage is pronounced.

Teams like the Ottawa Senators, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Seattle Kraken have been excellent home underdog plays, often getting inflated lines due to recent road struggles.

Action: Look for home underdogs getting +120 or better, especially against teams on long road trips.

2. Pacific Division Overs Are Printing Money

Pacific Division games are averaging 6.8 goals per game in January, well above the league average of 6.1. The combination of high-flying offenses (Oilers, Canucks) and inconsistent goaltending (Sharks, Ducks) creates ideal over conditions.

Games involving Edmonton, Vancouver, and Los Angeles have hit the over at a 61% rate over the last two weeks.

Action: Target overs in Pacific Division matchups, particularly when totals are set at 6.0 or lower.

3. Fade Teams on Long Road Trips

Teams playing their 4th or 5th consecutive road game are struggling mightily, going 12-24-3 ATS (33%). The grind of travel, time zone changes, and away from home routines is taking a toll.

This week, watch for road-weary teams like Tampa Bay (4-game Western road trip) and Colorado (5-game Eastern swing).

Action: Bet against teams on game 4+ of a road trip, especially if they're favored.

4. Metropolitan Division Unders

The Metropolitan Division has been a goalie's paradise. Games are averaging just 5.4 total goals, driven by elite goaltending from Shesterkin (Rangers), Sorokin (Islanders), and Hellebuyck-level performances across the division.

When two Metro teams face off, the under has cashed 67% of the time in January.

Action: Hammer unders in intra-Metropolitan matchups, especially with totals at 6.0 or higher.

5. Back-to-Back Puck Line Fades

Teams playing their second game in two nights are getting crushed on the puck line, going 18-41 (30.5%) when favored by 1.5 goals. Fatigue leads to closer games, making the underdog puck line extremely valuable.

Action: Take the +1.5 puck line on teams playing a well-rested opponent when the opponent played the night before.

Teams to Back This Week

New York Rangers (12-5 ATS Last 17 Games)

The Rangers are one of the most profitable teams in the league right now. Elite goaltending from Igor Shesterkin combined with consistent 5v5 play makes them a reliable bet.

They've been particularly strong as small favorites (-140 to -180), covering at a 71% rate in this range.

Edmonton Oilers (9-3 ATS Last 12 Home Games)

After a slow start, the Oilers have found their rhythm at Rogers Place. McDavid and Draisaitl are dominating, and Skinner's goaltending has stabilized.

Home favorites in the -180 to -220 range have been automatic.

Teams to Fade This Week

San Jose Sharks (4-13 ATS Last 17 Games)

The Sharks continue to struggle, and the market has been slow to adjust. They're getting overvalued as home underdogs, with bettors drawn to the plus money.

Even when getting 1.5 goals, they're covering less than 40% of the time.

Pittsburgh Penguins (5-12 ATS Last 17 Games)

The Penguins' aging core is showing. Defensive breakdowns and inconsistent goaltending make them unreliable, yet they're still getting respect from bookmakers based on name value.

Fade them as favorites until they prove otherwise.

Player Props to Target

Connor McDavid Over 0.5 Points

McDavid has recorded at least one point in 14 of his last 15 games. His over 0.5 points line is typically priced around -200 to -250, but the hit rate justifies the juice.

Auston Matthews Over 3.5 Shots on Goal

Matthews is averaging 4.8 shots per game over his last 20. The 3.5 line offers excellent value at -120 or better.

Best Bet of the Week

Vancouver Canucks ML vs. Arizona Coyotes (-140)

The Canucks are rolling at home (8-2 last 10) and face a Coyotes team on the 4th game of a 5-game road trip. Vancouver's power play is lethal, and Arizona's penalty kill ranks bottom-5.

The line should be closer to -180. Get it now before it moves.

Line Shopping Spotlight

This week, we've seen odds discrepancies of 20-30 cents on several games. Always check NHLOdds.io before placing your bet. Getting Edmonton at -165 instead of -180 adds significant long-term value.

Conclusion

Focus on home underdogs, Pacific overs, and fading road-weary teams. The Rangers and Oilers are in prime betting form, while the Sharks and Penguins should be avoided.

Track these trends throughout the week and adjust as lines move. Good luck, and bet responsibly!